Undecided vote holds balance of power says TNS-BMRB poll

VOTERS STILL UNDECIDED

• Just over four in ten likely voters (41%) say they are still not certain about which party they will place their cross by in the polling booth on May 6th. This has fallen slightly from a half of all probable voters at the beginning of the campaign (50%), but is still a very high figure as we enter the finishing straight of the 2010 general election.

TNS-BMRB’S SEAT PREDICTION MODEL - MORE POSITIVE FOR CONSERVATIVES

• This is one of the most detailed models as it takes into account the race conditions for each individual seat and differs from the uniform national swing. Compared to the traditional model it paints a more positive picture for the Conservatives who would have 292 seats, Labour 204 and the Liberal Democrats would have 114. In contrast the uniform national swing, with TNS-BMRB’s polling figures, would show Labour and the Conservatives having nearly the same number of seats (Con 260; Lab 263) and the Liberal Democrats trailing significantly (98). The TNS-BMRB seat prediction model uses the ‘soft voters’ preferred party choice.

To speak to Michelle Harrison, CEO of TNS-BMRB, please contact Laura Chatterton on 020 7656 5054.

Methodological summary:
TNS-BMRB interviewed a representative sample of 1,864 GB adults aged 18+ between 29/4/10 and 4/5/10.

All interviews were conducted in respondents’ homes, although the voting intention data was collected using self-completion methods. The data is weighted twice, firstly to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2005 voting patterns, constituency type, and region, and secondly, for voting intention questions only, an additional 'likelihood-to-vote' weight has been applied.

Further information is available on request.

About TNS–BMRB
TNS-BMRB is a leading provider of specialist social research, offering insight into public policy to government and not-for-profit clients. Delivering a range of approaches including bespoke proprietary research and consultancy, random probability survey capabilities, as well as social marketing and polling, TNS-BMRB is the largest commercial provider of social research and insight to Whitehall. TNS-BMRB is part of the TNS group.

About Kantar
Kantar is one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy networks. By uniting the diverse talents of its 13 specialist companies, the group aims to become the pre-eminent provider of compelling and inspirational insights for the global business community. Its 26,500 employees work across 95 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at each and every point of the consumer cycle. The group’s services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies. For further information, please visit us at www.kantar.com